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From the Summary:

"January 1 snowpack conditions favored the northern extent of New Mexico's forecast basins, with persistent dry conditions throughout most of the state to start the winter season. Extremely low to absent snow conditions dominated the state's southern and western major river catchments at the end of December, leaving statewide Snow Water Equivalent totals at 66% of reference period normal. This aggregated total is statistically matched to last year's January 1 snowpack though with a distinct geographic distribution where much of the state has not retained significant snowpack going into 2025. Relatively smaller departures below normal Snow Water Equivalent characterized the northernmost contributing basins of the San Juan and Rio Grande Headwaters. In contrast, much more dismal winter hydrometeorological conditions existed to start to start the New Year further south throughout the Rio Grande, Canadian, Pecos, Gila- San Francisco and Zuni basins.

Water year to-date total precipitation provides a more optimistic early winter snapshot of statewide water cycle input conditions. Wetter than normal conditions were recorded across all major forecast basins through mid- December, with dry conditions in the weeks leading to the New Year landing cumulative precipitation at nearly 87% of the reference period median across our forecast basins. This represents a significant improvement over January 1 water year-to-date precipitation in 2024. Rainfall early in the water year interacts with spring runoff volumes differently than accumulated water sitting on the landscape surface as frozen snow. If dry winter conditions persist, these fall precipitation inputs may be overshadowed by a lack of snow water available for melt and runoff during future streamflow forecast production cycles as we move toward springtime.

Reservoir storage volumes showed a significant increase over last year's January 1 totals in the Pecos system, with more marginal increases relative to the reference period normal in the Rio Grande Headwaters and Rio Chama- Upper Rio Grande systems. The Rio Grande Headwaters and Pecos systems both held above median storage volumes as of the start of the new calendar year. The Lower Rio Grande and Canadian storage systems held considerably less water in storage on January 1 as compared to last year.

This being the first official NRCS volumetric forecast publication of water year 2025, it builds a foundation for interpreting and future refinement of water supply expectations throughout the coming winter. The forecasts provided in this report are based upon early season conditions as of the end of December 2024. As such, January 1 official NRCS streamflow forecast volumes generally represent a considerable range of possible flows and will not account for any weather which has occurred throughout the state since the end of the last month. The wide range between the exceedance probability bounds in these forecasts reflect the considerable remaining uncertainty in how the winter will progress. As much is yet to be seen this winter season, the window of future weather is considered quite wide between early January and the primary runoff periods throughout the forecast domain in New Mexico. Observed monthly streamflow volumes early in the water year (October through December in this case) can be challenging to interpret, as these totals largely represent storage water being re-allocated between reservoirs to meet management objectives as opposed to new input entering the water supply from the natural water cycle."

- Jaz Ammon, Water Supply Specialist (Hydrologic Technician)